A24's Elizabeth Holmes doc is proof that specific beats franchise

Can a nearly three-hour documentary about a disgraced Silicon Valley founder embarrass a DC movie? This weekend, we may find out. A24's You Can See Everything is in its second weekend, and it's being treated as a real threat to Clayface for the top spot.

What happened, briefly

The film, directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, opened to an estimated $15 million from just 855 theaters, according to Fortune. That's the second-biggest documentary opening ever, behind Fahrenheit 9/11. Variety had projected $7 million to $8 million. It reportedly cost under $7 million to make and under $10 million to market.

Now comes the second weekend. Box Office Pro's preview has Clayface at $25 million to $30 million for its opening and the A24 film at $15 million to $20 million. Deadline reports that the documentary won Wednesday. Whether it actually takes No. 1 is still a forecast, not a result, and on paper Clayface remains the favorite.

This isn't "mid-budget is back." It's "specific is back"

The tidy thesis says the middle class of cinema has returned. We'd push back. A documentary with a combined production and marketing budget reported to be under $20 million isn't mid-budget in the old sense of a star-driven drama with a big price tag. It's something stranger: a film with an unmistakable hook.

Look at the hook. Fielder is a comedian whose work blurs performance and reality. Holmes is, in the words of Rentrak's Paul Dergarabedian in the ABC News wire story, "a character that you couldn't even make up." Fortune adds that murmurs of surprises and spoilers spread before release, something it calls commonplace for blockbusters but hardly typical for documentaries. Everyone could say in one sentence why they had to see it. Can your average franchise entry say the same?

The franchise problem is obligation, not scale

The other numbers are telling. Per Fortune, Digger, Warner Bros.' Tom Cruise dark comedy, was green-lit at a reported $125 million, and Variety has projected it could lose about $245 million. In its third weekend it made $920,000. That's not a mid-budget triumph; in our view it's a cautionary tale about star-plus-auteur money without a clear audience.

Meanwhile, last weekend Street Fighter, with a reported $82 million budget, won with $31 million, but averaged about $8,671 per theater against the documentary's roughly $17,544. We'd argue that tells you where the energy was. A brand opens a movie; it doesn't make anyone talk about it.

Audience matters too. Over 70% of the opening crowd was under 35, per the same ABC News story. Deadline says A24 has "cracked the code on Gen Z again," after Backrooms. Young viewers aren't allergic to theaters. They probably just want an event they can't get at home, and a three-hour film with more than 2,000 sellout showings is one.

The caveats, and the verdict

Let's not overread this. Documentaries like this are, as Fortune notes, exceptions. Reviews are staggering (99% on Rotten Tomatoes), which is hard to replicate. And Clayface may still win, which wouldn't make it a failure; it would simply be a decent opening for a DC film.

Our verdict: studios shouldn't conclude that they should make more mid-budget films. They should make fewer films nobody can describe in a sentence. If Clayface narrowly holds No. 1, the story remains the same: a $15 million-plus film built on a point of view is chasing a DC tentpole, and the tentpole is the one sweating.